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Do Teams with 50 Points at Halfway Always Go On to Win the Premier League?

1 February, 2023

Number 50 Arrow TargetHaving been the sixth favourites, at 40/1 no less, to win the Premier League title in 2022/23 before a ball had been kicked, it’s fair to say that Arsenal are proving the doubters wrong.

They have accumulated 50 points at the halfway stage of the campaign, which in theory gives them a chance of finishing the season with 100 points – that tally would have been enough to win the Premier League title in all but one of its 30 seasons (Manchester City in 2017/18 the only other team to reach three figures).

So, in theory at least, Arsenal fully deserve their favouritism in the betting market as they look to end a 19-year wait to lift the Premier League trophy once more.

But there is increased pressure as the finishing line comes into sight, and it’s not completely uncommon for title contenders to lose their way as the spotlight shines brighter on them.

So how often do clubs with 50 points at the halfway stage go on to win the Premier League title?

Completing the Job

Chart Showing the Premier League Winners with 50+ Points After 19 Games

The good news for Arsenal fans is that since the Premier League switched to its 20-team format in 1995/96, leaders with 50+ points at the halfway mark of the campaign have gone on to win the title on three out of four occasions.

The first to do so were Chelsea in 2005/06. Powered by the Special One, Jose Mourinho, at his brilliant best, the Blues started strongly and continued their fine form throughout the season, winning 29 of their 38 outings and ending the season on 91 points.

Chelsea went unbeaten from February until the end of the term, and ultimately enjoyed a handsome eight-point lead over nearest rivals Manchester United. They retained the title they won the previous season as the trophy-laden Roman Abramovich years kicked into full swing.

The Manchester City side of 2017/18 broke all manner of records in their incredible romp to the Premier League title.

They triumphed by a cavernous 19 points from local rivals Manchester United, becoming the only team to rack up a 100-point season in the Premier League. Some of their other records included:

  • Most Wins (32)
  • Most Away Wins (16)
  • Most Goals (106)
  • Most Consecutive Wins (18)
  • Best Goal Difference (+79)

Pep Guardiola gets the plaudits for masterminding the success, although the fact he was given £280 million to spend in the transfer market certainly helped. The likes of Ederson, Kyle Walker, Aymeric Laporte and Bernardo Silva have become club legends since, and all played their part in this most staggering of seasons.

Like a racehorse who begins idling when they are so far clear, Manchester City stormed to the front and only let up in the second half of the campaign. At the halfway stage, they had won 18 of their 19 games, with a solitary draw ensuring their points haul after 19 outings was an eye-wateringly good 55.

City didn’t lose until in the league until January, and they only lost twice all told in thrillers against United (2-3) and Liverpool (3-4). They won the title with eight games to spare.

Liverpool put the disappointment of 2018/19 behind them to win the title in the following campaign: racking up 55 points at the halfway stage, before finishing agonisingly short of the ton on 99 points at the end of the campaign.

Incredibly, they only won six games out of eleven played from February to July – without the global disruption, that Liverpool side could have smashed all known records on their way to clinching their first-ever Premier League title.

Letting It Slip

Chart Showing Manchester City and Liverpool's Points Throughout the 2018/19 Premier League Season

A season prior, Liverpool had achieved the unthinkable – claiming 97 points but still not winning the title, largely down to a poor start to 2019 (and the brilliance of Manchester City).

The Reds couldn’t have hoped for a better way to get the 2018/19 season up and running. They won 16 of their opening 19 league games, remaining unbeaten and racking up 51 points in the process.

But then Christmas came and went, and whether Liverpool began to feel the pressure of converting that maiden Premier League win only they know. A 1-2 defeat to City in January was followed by draws against Leicester City, West Ham, Everton and Manchester United – those would prove costly.

Despite winning their last nine games in a row and only losing once all season, Liverpool would finish second to City by just a solitary point.

The 22-Team Premier League

Chart Showing the Points Totals of the First Three Premier League Winners

Just a quick point of order: from its inaugural season in 1992/93 through to 1994/95, the Premier League had 22 teams in it – meaning that 42 games were played by each side, and therefore the halfway mark came after 21 outings rather than the 19 as we know it today.

There was only one occasion in which teams had accumulated 50+ points at the halfway stage in this span….and they went on to win the title.

In the first Premier League campaign in 1992/93, Manchester United picked up just 35 points in the first half of the season. They soon picked up the pace in the second half, clearing up 49 points of the 63 available to claim the inaugural Premier League title.

Manchester United only lost one game at Old Trafford all season on their way to the 1993/94 title, in which a superb start was franked in the second half of the campaign as the Red Devils collected 92 points in total.

A season later, Blackburn Rovers won their only ever Premier League title. Powered by the goals of Alan Shearer and Chris Sutton, the Lancashire outfit almost reached the 50 mark, romping to 49 points in the first half of the campaign before the wheels came off in the second.

On the last day of the season they lost to Liverpool, but Manchester United’s inability to defeat West Ham meant that Blackburn won the title – just – by one point with a haul of 89.

Previous Post: « UEFA Change Financial Fair Play Rules to Close ‘Chelsea Loophole’ on Long Player Contracts
Next Post: What Is the Dress Code at the Cheltenham Festival? Jockey Club Ditches Formal Attire Rule »

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