There’s something masochistic about the play-off system in sport.
You see it every year in English football, or in elite basketball and American football franchises like the NBA and NFL. The regular league campaign counts for very little as the pressure of the post-season is ramped up; hopes fade and dreams are shattered in this most emotionally-gruelling of sporting theatres.
Or does it? In theory, the team that finishes highest up the league table should win the play-offs too – they have shown their class over the fullness of the regular campaign.
But there’s a feeling that the team heading into the play-offs with most confidence, perhaps as a result of stringing together a series of wins heading into the play-off phase.
So what would you rather: be the team that finishes highest in the league phase? Or the team heading into the play-offs with the most ‘momentum’ – a concept in sport yet to have any empirical evidence of existing at all?
The results might just surprise you….
English Championship Play-Offs: Form is Temporary?
Although there’s more prestigious play-off competitions in the world of sport – you only have to look at the astronomical viewing figures of the NBA and NFL versions, few boast the riches of the English Championship play-offs in football.
The winning team will earn in the region of £140 million from securing promotion to the Premier League, when the various revenue streams – a share of the TV broadcast rights, prize money, extra merchandise sales, possible parachute payments (if relegated again) – are added together.
Then you have the pressure of the fans, who are desperate to see their heroes strut their stuff on arguably the biggest stage in league football. The players themselves, particularly those who have never played in the Premier League before, are on the cusp of making their wildest dreams come true.
When you think about it, the Championship play-offs are more than just a series of football matches.
For the uninitiated, the teams that finish first and second in the Championship table earn automatic promotion to the Premier League. Those that finish between third and sixth then progress to the play-offs – third plays sixth, fourth plays fifth, with the winners over two legs qualifying for the single game final.
English Football League Promotion Places
| Division | Automatic | Playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Championship | 1st – 2nd | 3rd – 6th |
| League One | 1st – 2nd | 3rd – 6th |
| League Two | 1st – 3rd | 4th – 7th |
It’s not uncommon for the team finishing in third place to finish 20 or more points clear of the side in sixth, which shows their clear superiority over them during the course of a 46-game campaign.
So the team that does finish third in the Championship league table should, in theory, be the favourite to win the play-offs. But does it actually work out that way?
This simple graph shows the finishing position of the team that went on to win the play-offs over the past decade. In theory, we would expect the side finishing third or at least fourth to dominate – the idea that form is temporary, but class is permanent (proven over the long course of a 46-game season).
And so it proves, with teams finishing third or fourth winning the Championship play-offs in eight of the ten seasons of our study – four times each, to be precise.
Meanwhile, the team finishing in fifth place prevailed in two of the last ten Championship play-off finals, while the side finishing in sixth place during the regular season failed to get promoted once in our research period – proving, perhaps, that the gulf in class between them and the team finishing in third is still able to manifest itself over the course of two semi-final matches.
But we mentioned at the start of this article that we’re also interested in the phenomenon of momentum in sport. Does it exist? How do you quantify it? In theory, if you believe in momentum, the team heading into the play-offs in the best form – regardless of whether they finish third, fourth, fifth or sixth in the league table – also has the best chance of winning them.
Is that how it plays out?
2022/23
The 2022/23 play-offs were notable for Luton Town returning to the English top-flight after decades away – at one point, they had sunk as low as the National League, the fifth tier of the game, after suffering a series of relegations.
The Hatters finished third in the Championship table, and so in theory they should have been favourites to win the play-offs anyway – they beat sixth-placed Sunderland 3-2 on aggregate in the semi-finals, before downing fifth-place Coventry City on penalties in the final.
But were they the form side heading into the play-offs? Here’s how many points the respective teams accumulated in their final ten Championship games of the regular season:
- #3 – Luton Town (20 points)
- #4 – Middlesbrough (12 points)
- #5 – Coventry City (17 points)
- #6 – Sunderland (17 points)
Based upon the law of momentum, it was perhaps no surprise that Luton Town and Coventry City won their respective play-off semi-finals, before Luton came out on top in the final.
But this is a small sample of one, so is this a common trend in the Championship play-offs?
2021/22
The 2021/22 Championship season culminated in Nottingham Forest securing promotion via the play-offs.
But were the Tricky Trees touched by the hand of momentum?
- #3 – Huddersfield Town (20 points)
- #4 – Nottingham Forest (22 points)
- #5 – Sheffield United (18 points)
- #6 – Luton Town (18 points)
All four teams headed into the 2021/22 play-offs in reasonable form, although it was Forest that led the form table – and went on to defeat Sheffield United and Huddersfield Town on their way to promotion.
2020/21
The 2020/21 season offers a fascinating examination of how momentum played a part in the play-offs.
- #3 – Brentford (20 points)
- #4 – Swansea City (11 points)
- #5 – Barnsley (17 points)
- #6 – Bournemouth (21 points)
Bournemouth were the form team heading into the play-offs, although they lost three games in a row to end the campaign having won their prior seven. Had they lost momentum by the time the play-offs came round?
They would lose 2-3 on aggregate to Brentford, the side that had finished ten points above them during the regular league season. Swansea, meanwhile, would overcome their momentum-less end to the campaign to beat Barnsley in their semi-final.
As for the final, Brentford ran out comfortable 2-0 winners – scoring both of their goals in the opening 20 minutes at Wembley.
2019/20
Fulham finished fourth behind Brentford by virtue of goal difference only, however they would go on to have the last laugh in the play-offs.
- #3 – Brentford (24 points)
- #4 – Fulham (18 points)
- #5 – Cardiff City (22 points)
- #6 – Swansea City (18 points)
Brentford were in stellar form over the course of their final ten games of the season, but they actually lost their last two – is that enough for momentum to be derailed?
Fulham were less successful, although they did go seven unbeaten to end the campaign – five wins, two draws – so they did have momentum even if they didn’t have the points on the board.
Brentford and Fulham won their respective semi-finals, before the Cottagers ran out 2-1 winners in the final.
2018/19
Leeds were the third best team in the Championship in 2018/19, at least as far as the league table was concerned, but their form to end the campaign was miserable – W4 D1 L5. Momentum? Not a bit of it.
- #3 – Leeds United (13 points)
- #4 – West Brom (19 points)
- #5 – Aston Villa (25 points)
- #6 – Derby County (20 points)
But Aston Villa had stacks of it….so you can probably guess what happened next. The Villains beat West Brom, Leeds lost to Derby, before Villa went on to clinch promotion by defeating Derby in the final.
So what have we learned? From a relatively small sample, the finishing positions can be a good guide as to how the play-offs will pan out – sides finishing sixth generally haven’t done well in the post-season skirmishes.
But momentum is worth plenty – four of the last five play-off winners had landed 20 or more points from their final ten games of the season, while the anomaly (Fulham in 2020) had ended their campaign unbeaten in seven.
So is momentum a genuine difference-maker in the Championship play-offs? There’s definitely a suggestion of such.
NBA Play-Offs: Is Class Permanent?
The play-off system used in the top American sports can feel unusual to those schooled in more traditional league formats around the world.
As a guide, the teams in the NBA are split into geographic divisions, which then feed into the Eastern and Western Conferences. The best ten sides in each after a long and gruelling regular season qualify for the play-offs.
▪️ Sixers win, force Game 6
▪️ Cavs win, take 3-2 lead
▪️ Bucks win, force Game 6#NBAPlayoffs presented by Google Pixel continue Wednesday on TNT! pic.twitter.com/SzMVWX4qd9— NBA (@NBA) May 1, 2024
The best teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences secure top seeding and home advantage in the play-offs. The next best automatically qualify for the post-season tournament, while those that finish in the ninth and tenth spots have to earn their place via a play-in tournament.
Got it? Good.
So what assumptions can we make? In theory, the higher your seeding, the greater your chance of winning the play-offs (and reaching the NBA Championship game). That’s because you’ve shown your class over the course of an 82-game regular season, and thus can be considered a stronger side than your play-off rivals.
So is that how the NBA play-offs work out? And did momentum from the end of the regular season get carried into the post-season campaign?
In stark contrast to the English Championship play-offs, it’s incredible to see how often the top seed from either the Eastern or Western Conference goes on to win the NBA Championships.
We can suspend our disbelief for the number two seed winning as well, which means that in the past decade there are only two instances in which what was supposed to happen didn’t: because the number three seed won the NBA Finals in 2020/21 and 2021/22.
The Milwaukee Bucks finished that 2020/21 campaign with a 46-26 record, which meant they were three wins worse off than Eastern Conference champions Philadelphia 76ers.
Both signed off on the regular season with an identical record – sevens wins and two defeats in the final month of the campaign, and so the Bucks’ victory was aided by the momentum of that – although that’s not to say the 76ers didn’t have the same kind of form to fall back on.
Unexpectedly, both the top seeds in the Eastern and Western Conferences lost in their respective play-off semi-finals, leaving the door ajar for Milwaukee and Phoenix Suns, second seeds in the West, to battle it out for the NBA Championship – the former running out 4-2 victors.
A year later, the Suns – this time the top seeds in the Western Conference – were downed in the semi-finals, allowing the third seed, Golden State Warriors, to progress to the NBA Finals.
The Warriors had won five games in a row to sign off on the regular season, whereas the Suns had lost four of their last six. Phoenix racked up 12 more regular season wins than the team that beat them in the play-offs, Dallas Mavericks, who had triumphed in 16 of their last 21 before the post-season.
Did momentum play a part in Dallas defeating Phoenix, and therefore opening the door in the West to the Warriors?
NFL Play-Offs: To the Super Bowl
The objective for all NFL teams heading into the season is to reach, and win, the Super Bowl.
That is effectively the play-off final, coming after a traditional ‘bracket’ style tournament featuring seven teams each from the AFC and NFC Conferences.
Like always, being the top seed – handed to the two teams that top those respective conferences – has its benefits. They don’t have to play in the first round of the play-offs, getting a direct route to the second phase, and they’re also given the perk of home advantage too.
Therefore, we would expect either the top seed or the second seed to make it to the Super Bowl – assuming momentum doesn’t exist, and that long-term quality is the key predictor of success.
But how often does that scenario play out?
This graphic tells an interesting tale. Between 2013/14 and 2017/18, the top seed of either Conference won the Super Bowl – irrespective of any questions of momentum leading into the play-offs.
But since then, only one top seed has gone on to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy – teams ranked as low as fifth have, meanwhile, gone on to win the Super Bowl.
The 2020 and 2021 seasons are particularly interesting in that regard. In 2020, Tampa Bay beat the first, second and fourth seeds in the NFC Conference, before downing the AFC top seed – Kansas City Chiefs – in the Super Bowl.
Intriguingly, the Buccaneers had ended the regular season with four wins on the bounce – their first opponent in the play-offs, Washington, had lost two of their last three.
The 2022 Super Bowl (at the end of the 2021 campaign) saw a pair of number four seeds, LA Rams and Cincinnati Bengals, lock horns. The eventual champions, Los Angeles, won five of their last six regular season games, running riot in their first play-off game against an Arizona Cardinals outfit that had lost four of their last five.
Maybe American football games are hard to predict. Maybe the gap in quality between the seeds is lower. Or maybe momentum, built at the end of the regular season before heading into the play-offs, is a key difference maker.
World Snooker Championships: Momentum is Golden
There’s a unique format used at the World Snooker Championships each year.
The top 16 players in the world qualify automatically for the tournament at The Crucible, enjoying the perks of being seeded. Otherwise, the rest of the field has to earn their way into the field through qualifying.
That process can see players having to battle through as many as four long-form matches before they even qualify for the Worlds – but at least they head into the tournament match sharp and with the confidence of that winning feeling.
As for the top seeds, they may or may not have confidence on their side – the snooker season experiences something of a lull in the first few months of the calendar year. So it’s no wonder they’re vulnerable to the qualifiers.
At the 2024 World Championships, a whopping eight of the sixteen seeds lost in the first round to a qualifier – it would take the most persuasive of arguments to suggest that momentum hasn’t played a part in that.
The 2024 edition was something of an anomaly – between 2021 and 2023, the number of seeds losing in the first round was two, two and four respectively, but in theory the total should be zero: the seeds earn their status by delivering consistently high quality performances throughout the season.
Momentum, confidence….call it what you will. There’s no doubt that at the World Snooker Championships – and in sports with play-off style formats after the regular season – it’s absolutely key to the number of underdog victories we’re witnessing.