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Ranking the Unlikeliest Finals in Sporting History

Impossible Changed to Possible with Red MarkerBetting odds also double up as a predictor of how likely something is to happen in the eyes of bookmakers and the punting public.

These odds can easily be translated into implied probabilities – for example, you’d get at least 1,000/1 on there being an alien invasion of earth this year; a probability of 0.1%, which in itself seems generous.

So when the outright odds are released for any sporting event around the world, we have a numerical benchmark of how likely – or unlikely – a specific pairing in the final would be.

The 2023 MLB World Series, for example, pitted the wits of the Texas Rangers against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Not even the most mystic of baseball fans would have called this match-up for the sport’s most prestigious game, with the Rangers 50/1 to win the World Series prior to the season’s start – an implied probability of just 2% – and the Diamondbacks at 125/1….an implied probability of a miniscule 0.8%.

You don’t even need to be a baseball fan to recognise how unlikely this World Series final is – just take a look at those numbers, which have left even the most knowledgeable of MLB lovers scratching their heads at the implausibility of it all.

So is the 2023 World Series the unlikeliest sporting final of all time as per the betting odds and probabilities?

World Series, 1991

Team Pre-Season Odds Implied Probability
Minnesota Twins 80/1 1.2%
Atlanta Braves 200/1 0.5%

By our reckoning, major sporting finales don’t come more deliciously unexpected than the 1991 World Series games between the Minnesota Twins and the Atlanta Braves.

Before a ball had been pitched that season, Minnesota were given odds of 80/1 to win Major League Baseball’s biggest prize – an implied probability of 1.2%.

As for Atlanta, they were complete no-hopers: at 200/1, and with only one team (Houston Astros) considered to have less of a chance of winning the World Series, Braves punters lived up to their name with an implied probability of a tiny 0.5%.

You can probably guess the rest….

The two franchises made history, becoming the only teams in MLB history that had finished bottom of the league the prior season to then contest the World Series the next year.

The Twins would win in the final and deciding rubber to complete the most remarkable – and surprising – 4-3 victory.

Wimbledon Men’s Singles Final, 1996

Player Pre-Tournament Odds Implied Probability
Richard Krajicek 50/1 2%
MaliVai Washington 300/1 0.3%

The men’s singles final at Wimbledon in 1996 is perhaps best remembered for its streaker than its tennis.

That’s largely because the two finalists were so expected. Richard Krajicek, only seeded due to the withdrawal of Thomas Muster, was available at odds of 50/1 (2%) prior to the tournament starting.

As for MaliVai Washington, as well as being unseeded he’d only ever gone past the fourth round of a Grand Slam event once – hence his odds of 300/1 (0.3%).

After the unexpected stop-off from the barely-clothed interloper, the two underdogs got down to business – Krajicek coming out on top in straight sets.

Super Bowl XXXIV, 2000

Team Pre-Season Odds Implied Probability
St Louis Rams 150/1 0.7%
Tennessee Titans 33/1 2.9%

Although they didn’t know it at the time, the Rams would start the 2001/02 season as the 4/1 favourites to win the Super Bowl.

But in 1999/00, they appeared to be a million miles away from such standards – as odds of 150/1 (0.7%) imply.

The team they would go on to meet in Super Bowl XXXIV – Tennessee Titans – were a 33/1 chance themselves before the season, which equates to an implied probability of just 2.9%.

However, these two unlikely foes would meet in the biggest ball game of them all at the Georgia Dome….with the Rams making a mockery of those pre-season odds of 150/1 to shock the sporting world.

FA Cup Final, 2008

Team Pre-Tournament Odds Implied Probability
Portsmouth 25/1 3.8%
Cardiff City 50/1 2%

If you’d named the four FA Cup semi-finalists of 2007/08 as Portsmouth, Cardiff City, Barnsley and West Brom you’d have done very well at the bookies.

Only Pompey of that quartet was playing in the Premier League at the time, but the plucky underdogs of the Championship were more than up to the task as both Manchester clubs, Arsenal, Chelsea and the like fell by the wayside.

A final featuring pre-tournament 25/1 (Portsmouth) and 50/1 (Cardiff) chances doesn’t come along that often, with Pompey claiming glory courtesy of Kanu’s first-half goal – a handsome day for their backers, and not too shabby for each way pickers of the Welsh side in truth.

European Championship Final, 2004

Team Pre-Tournament Odds Implied Probability
Greece 80/1 1.2%
Portugal 7/1 12.5%

Savvy punters could secure odds of 7/1 on Portugal to win Euro 2004 – an implied probability of 12.5% on Cristiano Ronaldo and co getting the job done.

Before the European Championships were expanded to 24 teams, just 16 battled it out – as was the case in 2004. So, a 16-team field will always have shorter odds even on the outsiders; a camp in which Greece, at 80/1 (1.2%), firmly resided.

Only Switzerland and surprise package Latvia were considered to have less of a chance of lifting the trophy than the Greeks, but as they defeated Portugal and drew with Spain in their Group A openers, the dream looked….well, not on, but somewhat more possible.

Greece dumped out tournament favourites France in the quarters before defeating the Czech Republic 1-0 in the semis – they had achieved the near-unthinkable.

Would the final prove to be a game too far? Not a bit of it, as the Portuguese were brushed aside for the second time in three weeks courtesy of Angelos Charisteas’ goal – completing one of the most remarkable underdog stories in sporting history.